Earthquake Predictions: Intermediate and Long Term

Environmental & Science Education, STEM, Earth & Space Science, Earth Systems, Solar System, Geology 

Ed Hessler

"Earthquakes" writes Sabine Hossenfelder, "are the most fatal natural disasters. According to a report from the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, in the period from 1998-2017, Earthquakes accounted for 7.8% of natural disasters, but for 56% of deaths from natural disasters. Why is it so hard to predict earthquakes? Did you know that the number of earthquakes correlates with solar activity and with the length of the day? You didn’t? Well then stay tuned...."

In the first of a two-part series, Hossenfelder discusses "the long-term and intermediate term forecast for earthquake probability, ranging from centuries to months." She notes that "geophysicists are teasing out some really systematic correlations that may lead to better long-term predictions" regarding the risk of an earthquake. 

The video is 14m 30s long. You may watch it on YouTube (linked) but in this link there is a complete transcript, too.