Animals and Earth Quake Predictions

Environmental & Science Education, STEM, Earth & Space Science, Earth Systems, Behavior, Biodiversity, Geology

Ed Hessler

The second of two presentations by Sabine Hossenfelder on earthquake prediction, she discusses short-term forecasts, "from months to seconds. In this one she again calls attention to their human toll. "[E]arthquakes are the most fatal natural disasters. In the two decades from 1998 to 2017, they killed more than 700 thousand people." Then she asks,

"So what are seismologists doing to warn people of earthquakes? Can animals sense if an earthquake is coming? And what are earthquake lights? That’s what we will talk about today. ...  Short-term predictions don’t help with infrastructure investments, but they give people time to evacuate."

The non-seismic precursors may attract your attention because those involving animals are commonly reported. First, Hossenfelder includes a discussion of several short-term physical precursors "that are fairly well established though not all are well understood before she turns her attention to animals. 

She ends by talking about the "heavy burden" that comes with predictions, i.e., when they are wrong. She makes a suggestion that seem a worthy and important component of any prediction.

The video can be watched on YouTube but I like being able to read the text along with listening.